Google Plus, and the Facebook and Apple Context

Executive Summary: Google Plus' future is for Google to throw away. It is in the hands of the marketing team (because I think the product is on a Moore's Law-ish trajectory), and in the hands of the unknown disruptive forces hiding in dark alleys. Yes, this is an unabashed, quick and dirty speculation on Google Plus' opportunity. From The Desk of Talking-About-Google+-As-a-Social Network-Is-Like-Calling-Le-Louvre-a-Little-Hovel.

After living with google+ for a while, here are some key, qualitative thoughts.

Throw away all that propaganda about Google Plus as a social network. Calling Google Plus a social network is like trying to fit an elephant into a refrigerator. Evaluate Google Plus against Facebook and Apple on the following dimensions:

• Core Company Products

• Digital Platform Integrating Core Products as an Ecosystem

• Flexible Social Platform

• A Gateway to a Digital Life
 
Now that we have got the obvious Big, Hairy, Audacious Ideas out of the way, here are the qualitative teasers I was talking about:

1. For The Believers:
Are you already a googlephile who cannot live without, atleast a few, google services? Then, Google Plus is, for now, google accounts on steroids, with controls and features staked onto it.
 
Very nicely done, though. Thank you. Not tacky at all. Now, segway to that Journey song from Glee.
 
2. Indicative Product Feature- Circles:
Very nicely done. Again. Lives up to its billing as the slayer of social network privacy concerns.

The circles model of relationships reminded me of a "brain's trust" model shared by a macroeconomics professor in graduate school. The graphical privacy controls makes you want to get comfortable by tweaking privacy to your comfort level.

Note, I have not talked about features like Hangout. All of those also falls under the "Nicely done. Thank you" category. Why pick Circles? It jumps at you like no other Google Plus feature.

3. Integrated Digital Platform:
Picasa for pics. Videos.YouTube. Yeh. Google has some pretty powerful and mature products. Google Plus comes "preloaded" with some of these google products. Google Plus is a great way to sew these products together, making it a complete and a serious digital platform.
 

Would you say that Google Plus is like an Apple ecosystem? Can it be like an Apple ecosystem? Can it be better than an Apple and a Facebook ecosystem rolled into one?

I think it can, but that is a different story, a different blog post. All Google has to do is light a few fires. Keep doing what it is doing on products. Keep integrating them. Oh, and spawn a few Zyngas now and then.
 
4. A Social Platform:
Will Google Plus be a serious social platform? That would be a function of adoption (think share of social life) and switching (think identifying this as a primary social platform).

Google Plus may hit 20 million + users by July 20. However, how many users will migrate from Facebook to Google Plus? How many will live in animated suspension between the two worlds? Finally, how many will use Google Plus as a glorified GMail service?

What would be your estimate of an equilibrium/ steady state Google Plus user base? 150+ MM? 250+ MM? 400+ MM? While staying out of China (for how long?)? What is your sense of the tipping point when Facebook users start migrating from Facebook to Google Plus, network by network?
 
5. Privacy Controls:
Yes, finding myself in a few folks' circles, when I hopped onto the platform, freaked me out a little.

Also, Google Plus, better than google accounts, brought home the fact that I use a lot of google products and all that information is a sneeze away from being mapped into a digital life.

If you live off GMail, this should not surprise you. However, since I can claim to understand a little bit about security, privacy concerns will always pop up in my mind. Maybe it is just me.

6. A Gateway to a Digital Life:
To borrow from a wise man I know (who is also on Google Plus) - can Google be my gateway to a digital life?

The Pitch? Without much ado (to all the Google engineers, yes I am being simplistic :-)), Google can be my online identity, my Netflix, and my computing device on a cloud. Even as a glue for the google products we already (or will) use, Google Plus will be a formidable doorway.

I am inclined to draw a bubble chart mapping how the Apple, Facebook and Google future state ecosystems would look 5 years from now. For now, all I will say that in his early days, Henry Ford would have been proud to call his company Google. Think Google Products + Android + Cloud + Google Wireless (Definitely Maybe?).

That's enough crystal ball gazing for now. I have stretched my definition of "key qualitative thoughts" far enough. Moreover, I would like to sneak in the crystal ball gazing in digestible chunks.

What do you think? If you do, you know where to catch me for a lively conversation.

Data, Privacy and Social Media: Impact on Analytics and Tools

Executive Summary: How does data, along with the constraints on it, impact web analytics tools and the industry? How do you start structuring your thoughts about data's role in this industry?
Note: This came about after some rumination on the way the web and social media are being used by businesses, and this post has been updated with some of those thoughts to help continuity.

My last couple posts have been threatening to run down this alley for a while, but I realized that Data, Privacy and Social Media need to be addressed together in a separate post. I shared these thoughts with Alan Chapell, Chapell & Associates, after a chance meeting with him at an event before the Affiliate Marketing Summit.

Do Privacy Issues Impact Data Access for Analysis?
Yes, especially when you are not the primary service provider.

When you think about Data, Privacy and Social Media in the same breath, issues like those that Facebook has recently faced come to mind:
1> The criticism:
http://consumerist.com/5150175/facebooks-new-terms-of-service-we-can-do-anything-we-want-with-your-content-forever
2> The response:
http://blog.facebook.com/blog.php?post=54434097130

It is important to note that this recent case is part of a continuum of controversies over access to and sharing of online customer information during the past decade.

Data privacy is just one of the factors impacting the web analytics industry. Hence, to assess the impact of data related privacy issues on web analytics for social media, you need to drill down for insights in the following manner:

Drill Down Level 1: Analytics, Market Structure and Client Trends
1> State of the Art in Analytics.
2> Client Requirements.
3> Market Structure.

Drill Down level 2: Client Needs and Impact of Data
Insights from areas 1, 2 and 3 above will help you create a picture of:
1> Industry Objectives: Met and Unmet
These are objectives that the web analytics industry can currently help its clients meet. E.g. What metrics can be measured, and how do they translate into impact for the client?

2> Data Access and Usage: Reality, Needs, Gaps
This is role data currently plays, and can play, in the industry. E.g. What data, out of the available data sources, is currently utilized, how is it utilized, and how can it be utilized?

Drill Down Level 3: Data Privacy Constraints
Once we have this level of analysis, we can gain an insight into the impact of current privacy constraints on the industry. Importantly, we also can overlay various combinations of data privacy constraints to get an insight into the role data privacy can play in the industry.

Drill Down Level 1: Below are some questions that help us get insights:
1. State of the Analytics Art: What is the level of skill and tool maturity of social media companies in terms of tracking social networks, and allowing ad targeting around them? Some additional evaluative questions can be found at my previous post below:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/08/ads-applying-web-analytics-tools.html

2. Comparing Traditional and Social Media Analytics:
An alternative to consumer targeting via social network analysis is targeting via demographic and psychographic analysis. Here companies like Nielsen have developed a set of consumer personality profiles. Are social media sites developing such profiles?

3. Third Party Analytics:
How do third party analytics compare with the State of the Analytics Art? Specifically, (in terms of providing social network access to third party providers for analytics) are social media companies taking an API and metrics sharing or a raw data sharing approach? This impacts the competitive environment in the analytics industry.

4. Client Needs:
What are clients doing in the web and social media space? What are the client objectives in this space? Are they looking at demand generation or demand fulfilment? What would they like to/ need to measure?

5. Market Structure (and Opportunity!): Who are the major players? Is the market fragmented? Are there alliances in this market? How strong are service provider- client relationships? Do analysis, metrics, or data clearinghouses exist?

The opportunity!: Is there a market for "clearinghouses" for analytics that would provide media buyers access to social media consumer data across platforms? In reality, a "clearinghouse" is not easy to achieve- E.g. In the brick-and-mortar retail world, Walmart does not share its scanner data.

The Background
How did I arrive at this post? My last couple of posts have been pointing toward looking at Data, Analytics and Social Networks through the privacy lens:
1. Data, Privacy and Customized Brand Metrics:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/08/sustaining-brand-conversation-behavior.html
How do you deal with a profusion of metrics which often have an unclear context? We need metrics with clear semantics. Some of these metrics may be custom created for a specific brand, consumer profile, activity and social media context.
Future Shock
While generic, industry standard metrics are important, there is a huge *future* potential for metrics customized to the brand. These will hinge on the data collection capabilities of social media platforms, and their ability to share it in a cheap, safe, anonymized manner with third parties for further analysis. Additional factors that come into play- quality of data, privacy concerns and analytics capabilities.

2. Data, Privacy and Web Analytics Tools:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/08/ads-applying-web-analytics-tools.html
3. Can you utilize the social network based targeting tools in conjunction with non social network based predictive analysis tools to minimize errors or optimize marketing spend?
Don't Forget Data: The Root of All Analytics
While it is easy to get lost in the tools and their trade-offs, don't forget the data. Your data- what attributes are available, access, usability and quality- may dictate the choice of tools.

What do you think?


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Web Analytics: Social Network Analysis Tools for Ad Targeting.

Executive Summary: Are you looking at social network based ad serving analytics tools? How do they stack up on the measures below?:
1. Are they mature enough to provide "error" analysis (say Type I/ Type II) on the targeting?
2. Can you compare the "error" from social network based analytics tools against the error using non social network based analytics tools?
3. Can you utilize the social network based targeting tools in conjunction with non social network based predictive analysis tools to minimize errors or optimize marketing spend?

Why is there no focus on cost above? Apply cost factor weights to the results from the questions above and you have your ROI!

How To Develop Criteria For Evaluating Social Network Analysis Tools
From the Blueprint-for-winning-Social-Network-Analytics-Orders Dept., the How-Do-I-Start-a-Competitive-Analysis-of-the-Marketplace desk.

What About Social Network/ Graph Analysis for Marketing?
I have tinkered with various "traditional" analytical tools, like applying predictive modeling for web analytics, to looking at web server log files to analyze "eyeball" trends during the early days of the Internet boom, so, a recent post below reignited my interest in social network analysis for serving targeted ads:
http://www.marketersstudio.com/2009/08/the-social-graph-ad-targeting-buyers-guide.html

The post referred to a Knowledge@Wharton article on Network Based Marketing:
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1637

This article had some interesting insights:
Insight 1: Social Networks Help Us Find Like Minded Buyers
Another possibility is that because people often tend to talk to people like themselves, their buying tastes would be similar regardless of whether they ever discuss the product. "Social theory tells us that people who communicate with each other are more likely to be similar to each other, a concept called homophily," the researchers point out. "...Linked consumers probably are like-minded, and like-minded consumers tend to buy the same products."

Insight 2: Social Networks Help Target Buyers More Effectively
"In addition, analyzing the network allows the firm to acquire new customers who otherwise would have fallen through the cracks, because they would not have been identified based on traditional attributes."

The Power of Non Social Network Analysis Tools
I can attest to the fact that with non network based- a.k.a. traditional analytics- tools provide you incredible ways of reaching out to your target audience. If you have the data- various demographic, psychographic or geographic attributes- some of these tools can help you:
1. Target your audience effectively,
2. Give you a sense of the targeting errors (Type I/ Type II) with the model,
3. Help you rank order your targeting efforts by efficacy, and hence optimize your marketing dollar.

Comparing Social Network Based Marketing Tools vs. Existing, Non Social Network Tools
The first thought at comes to mind is whether social networking based ad targeting tools have matured to provide these features. Specifically:
1. Are they mature enough to provide "error" analysis (say Type I/ Type II) on the targeting?
2. Can you compare their "error" against the error using non social network based analytics tools?
3. Can you utilize the social network based targeting tools in conjunction with non social network based predictive analysis tools to minimize errors or optimize marketing spend?

Don't Forget Data: The Root of All Analytics
While it is easy to get lost in the tools and their trade-offs, don't forget the data. Your data- what attributes are available, access, usability and quality- may dictate the choice of tools.

In the Future Shock section of my previous post below:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/08/sustaining-brand-conversation-behavior.html
The ability to develop customized brand metrics "will hinge on the data collection capabilities of social media platforms, and their ability to share it in a cheap, safe, anonymized manner with third parties for further analysis. Additional factors that come into play- quality of data, privacy concerns and analytics capabilities."

Data privacy currently remains an important factor- more in a later post.

Aren't You Forgetting Computing Power?
I am discounting computing power as a factor. I will not tell you why. :-)

Conclusions For Social Network Based Ad Targeting
Non social network based marketing tools are pretty powerful. The questions above give you some insight into decisions related with integrating your existing analytics capabilities with social network based analytics. For the service providers, this is your blueprint for winning orders.

What do you think?

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