US Credit Rating Downgrade- The S&P AA+ Club

Executive Summary: Standard and Poor's downgrade of the US credit rating can be evaluated in terms of signaling power, economic comparisons of countries, and a review of the members of the S&P AA+ rating club. We take a brief look at two countries with sovereign debt ratings the same as that of the United States. From the Desk of If-It-Talks-Like -A-Duck-But-Does-Not-Walk-Like-A-Duck... What do you do? Worry about a double dip instead!

For a little while, folks were focused on the possibility of the US economy slipping back into a recession. Then, Standard and Poor's downgraded the US Credit Rating to AA+. There are various ways to review the implications of this move. Below are three. We take a quick look at two countries in the S&P AA+ club. This is just a quick look, since my take is that the core focus needs to be the possibility of a double dip recession.

1. Signaling Power:

Review and compare economic fundamentals across the OECD and come to your own conclusion on whether this credit rating event is a response to an economic reality that have already been factored in by the market, or this rating provides new information (broadcasts a new signal?) to the market that needs an economic reaction.

Here is a scenario analysis of the downgrade's impact on U.S. based financial institutions sectors:
http://swampland.time.com/2011/08/06/sp-downgrades-itself/

Here is another view of the impact of this downgrade:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/usa-ratings-financialsystem-idUSN1E7760AD20110807

2. Relative Macroecnomic Performance:

Review relative economic fundamentals across the globe, and reevaluate if there is a relative change in the US economy vis-a-vis the rest of the global economies, and if there is an across-the-board change in a set of economies across the global.

Here is Standard and Poor's view of the European economies and that the US credit rating downgrade means for them:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44053959

At the bottom of this article below is an opinion of the coupling of the APAC region economy with the US economy:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/07/us-global-economy-weekahead-idUSTRE77628V20110807

3. Review Members of the Standard & Poor's AA+ Credit Rating Club:

To get started, here is S&P's sovereign ratings page:
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us/;jsessionid=6TZhT1HpLpw3Slb1QjJZM1NR4wLTThcH4MfNp4JHbLZcGVHG0yhL!603717864?subSectorCode=39&start=100&range=50

Let's review two members of this club:
1. Belgium:
Here are some quick statistics on Belgium:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/be.html

Belgium set a record for the number of days without a government. If you think there's a message in there about fractious politics, here an extract about Belgium as a poster child from the Economist:

“Most surprising, perhaps, maddeningly ungovernable Belgium is being held up by many as a model for debt-crippled euro-zone governments.”http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss

If you thought Texas was its own country, here are more details on the political stress and strains at work in the country:
http://www.economist.com/node/18988904?story_id=18988904&fsrc=rss

You could also review Belgium's interest rates in the context of the European Central Bank long-term interest rate statistics for member states.
http://www.ecb.int/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html

In contrast to the Economist article about Belgium a few weeks ago, the Wall Street Journal reports growing concerns about Belgium's borrowing costs:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904007304576494042192351786.html

Les Belges thought setting a record for existing without a government was worth a party:
http://www.france24.com/en/20110217-belgium-world-record-longest-period-without-government-iraq-election

If you were Belgium, what would you do?

What do you think?

2. New Zealand:

Here is the NZ treasury's review of the NZ economy:
http://www.treasury.govt.nz/economy/overview

The factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/nz.html) tells me that New Zealand has the following key industries:
Food processing,
Wood and paper products,
Textiles,
Machinery,
Transportation equipment,
Banking and insurance,
Tourism,
Mining

New Zealand's economy is coupled to the Australian economy, and you may review the industry sectors to understand weaknesses in the economy relative to the other members of the AA+ club. This would be my starter list:
- Banking and insurance,
- Textiles,
- Machinery.

While you are at it, here is New Zealand's reaction to the United States joining the AA+ club:
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110806-700118.html

If you were New Zealand, how would you react?

What do you think?

Economic Recoveries.

Executive Summary: What would explain the length of the jobless recovery phase in an economic recovery? Would we find answers by comparing trends across recessions, or by comparing trends across countries, or by both? From the desk of I-Think-Therefore-Economics-Exists.

 

The employment/ population ratio has hit a low point not seen in a long while:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/net/page10.pdf

While you can utilize publicly available statistics to make your own charts and form your own views, here is a way to structure thoughts around it:

1. How do you compare recoveries and the nature of unemployment across recessions in the same country?
2. How do you compare recoveries and the nature of unemployment across countries during the same recession period? 

Comparing Economic Recoveries Across Countries During the Same Recession Period.

Since there have been comparisons between the European economies and the American economy:

1. How do the trends in the employment/ population ratio compare across countries?
2. Are European economies more likely to have structural changes in unemployment rates than the US?

Comparing Economic Recoveries Across Recessions in the Same Country.

What does the increasing "length" of the jobless recovery phase in a recovery mean, as a trend across recessions?

Is there something in the nature of the economy, the nature of the macroeconomic entities in the economy, the depth of the recession, or the boom period prior the recession that has primacy in terms of its impact on the nature of the recovery?

Here is one pattern of Socratic thought that explores the two questions above.

Is the increasing length of jobless recovery phase in a recovery, as a trend across recessions, a function of:

1. The increasingly service oriented nature of the economy?
2. An increasing dependence on large monolithic corporate entities over time as drivers of economic performance, with the dependence changing from direct hiring to a greater multiplier effect across the economic ecosystem in terms of dampening hiring?
3. The nature of work available to labor, which has changed from hyper-local activity, to increasingly being touched by global supply chains?
4. An increasing delinking of corporate performance, financial institution performance and "real" economy performance?
5. The degree of specialization, and education, require for work, requiring a greater time for individuals to unlearn, turn around and relearn?
• E.g. I talked about Baked by Melissa here, and surprise, surprise, it has expanded to four stores in NYC.
6. A greater population density in large metropolitan areas over time?
• This may be counter intuitive, if you think in terms of supply, where people band together to create economic activity (not everybody can be an entrepreneur).
• However, if you think in terms of depressed demand, which translates into opportunity for economic activity of a certain type, this may be a worthwhile line of inquiry.
7. Our lifestyles, which are less community driven, and hence make turnaround during recessions more difficult?
• E.g. This may be an effect seen in decreasing labor activism (ed- analysis to be done) with each passing recession.
8. A psychological effect (animal spirits) of the nature of the boom period that preceded it?
• E.g. How long did the Dutch economy take to recover from the tulip boom?
9. Simply the depth of the recession?

What do you think?

Note: Throw someone a thought provoking point about economics, and ye shall reap many more thoughts in return. These thoughts were first published in a macroeconomics forum, in the week of July 16th, 2011. Thank you, Prof. Rosensweig.

Google Plus and Apps.

Executive summary: App downloads continue to explode across various mobile and non mobile platforms. Are apps secondary to the Google Plus strategy? No. Here is why.

The Overview

In response to my last post on Google Plus, a wise man (thank you JJ) asked me whether I think products, not apps, are core to Google Plus' success. 

App downloads across various mobile and non mobile platforms (have you downloaded Spotify yet?) are exploding, and both paid and free app download projections till 2015 indicate they will become an integral part of our lives, if they aren't already.

So, the obvious answer? No.

Google Plus' Avenues to the Apps Superhighway
How does google plus play with apps? Here are some ways:

1. Android Mobile Platform Apps:

Google already has a mobile app platform with ready apps. Make it really easy for the apps to integrate with google plus.

2. Google Products as Apps:

Google products as apps are already a reality. Plug Google Plus into them.

3. Leverage/ Create an App Partner Ecosystem:

Android already has one for mobile apps. Google plus becomes one becomes the ecosystem for social across mobile. As I mentioned previously, the google ecosystem needs to spawn a few Zyngas, a few angry birds (while watching out for privacy trade-offs).

Easier said than done, right? The really interesting question? Can Google Plus also be the social collaboration framework for folks at work, and not just for folks at play?

What do you think?

Google Plus, and the Facebook and Apple Context

Executive Summary: Google Plus' future is for Google to throw away. It is in the hands of the marketing team (because I think the product is on a Moore's Law-ish trajectory), and in the hands of the unknown disruptive forces hiding in dark alleys. Yes, this is an unabashed, quick and dirty speculation on Google Plus' opportunity. From The Desk of Talking-About-Google+-As-a-Social Network-Is-Like-Calling-Le-Louvre-a-Little-Hovel.

After living with google+ for a while, here are some key, qualitative thoughts.

Throw away all that propaganda about Google Plus as a social network. Calling Google Plus a social network is like trying to fit an elephant into a refrigerator. Evaluate Google Plus against Facebook and Apple on the following dimensions:

• Core Company Products

• Digital Platform Integrating Core Products as an Ecosystem

• Flexible Social Platform

• A Gateway to a Digital Life
 
Now that we have got the obvious Big, Hairy, Audacious Ideas out of the way, here are the qualitative teasers I was talking about:

1. For The Believers:
Are you already a googlephile who cannot live without, atleast a few, google services? Then, Google Plus is, for now, google accounts on steroids, with controls and features staked onto it.
 
Very nicely done, though. Thank you. Not tacky at all. Now, segway to that Journey song from Glee.
 
2. Indicative Product Feature- Circles:
Very nicely done. Again. Lives up to its billing as the slayer of social network privacy concerns.

The circles model of relationships reminded me of a "brain's trust" model shared by a macroeconomics professor in graduate school. The graphical privacy controls makes you want to get comfortable by tweaking privacy to your comfort level.

Note, I have not talked about features like Hangout. All of those also falls under the "Nicely done. Thank you" category. Why pick Circles? It jumps at you like no other Google Plus feature.

3. Integrated Digital Platform:
Picasa for pics. Videos.YouTube. Yeh. Google has some pretty powerful and mature products. Google Plus comes "preloaded" with some of these google products. Google Plus is a great way to sew these products together, making it a complete and a serious digital platform.
 

Would you say that Google Plus is like an Apple ecosystem? Can it be like an Apple ecosystem? Can it be better than an Apple and a Facebook ecosystem rolled into one?

I think it can, but that is a different story, a different blog post. All Google has to do is light a few fires. Keep doing what it is doing on products. Keep integrating them. Oh, and spawn a few Zyngas now and then.
 
4. A Social Platform:
Will Google Plus be a serious social platform? That would be a function of adoption (think share of social life) and switching (think identifying this as a primary social platform).

Google Plus may hit 20 million + users by July 20. However, how many users will migrate from Facebook to Google Plus? How many will live in animated suspension between the two worlds? Finally, how many will use Google Plus as a glorified GMail service?

What would be your estimate of an equilibrium/ steady state Google Plus user base? 150+ MM? 250+ MM? 400+ MM? While staying out of China (for how long?)? What is your sense of the tipping point when Facebook users start migrating from Facebook to Google Plus, network by network?
 
5. Privacy Controls:
Yes, finding myself in a few folks' circles, when I hopped onto the platform, freaked me out a little.

Also, Google Plus, better than google accounts, brought home the fact that I use a lot of google products and all that information is a sneeze away from being mapped into a digital life.

If you live off GMail, this should not surprise you. However, since I can claim to understand a little bit about security, privacy concerns will always pop up in my mind. Maybe it is just me.

6. A Gateway to a Digital Life:
To borrow from a wise man I know (who is also on Google Plus) - can Google be my gateway to a digital life?

The Pitch? Without much ado (to all the Google engineers, yes I am being simplistic :-)), Google can be my online identity, my Netflix, and my computing device on a cloud. Even as a glue for the google products we already (or will) use, Google Plus will be a formidable doorway.

I am inclined to draw a bubble chart mapping how the Apple, Facebook and Google future state ecosystems would look 5 years from now. For now, all I will say that in his early days, Henry Ford would have been proud to call his company Google. Think Google Products + Android + Cloud + Google Wireless (Definitely Maybe?).

That's enough crystal ball gazing for now. I have stretched my definition of "key qualitative thoughts" far enough. Moreover, I would like to sneak in the crystal ball gazing in digestible chunks.

What do you think? If you do, you know where to catch me for a lively conversation.

News, New York Times, and a Movie about Publishing

Executive Summary: A review of "Page One: Inside the New York Times"- a documentary that provides an inside view of a market leader in publishing through some changes in the industry. From the desk of If-It-Sounds-Like-the-NYT-But-Reads-Like-Twitter, It-Really-Isn't-A-Documentary, It-Is-A-Reality-TV-Show.

Introduction

The last time I posted about a movie was the opening weekend of Iron Man, over 3 years ago. This one is about "Page One: Inside the New York Times", a "fly on the wall" account of a desk at the New York Times.

The Key Theme: Challenges

The movie gets three challenges facing the New York Times right:

1. A Market Leader's Core Differentiation in a Seemingly Fragmented Ecosystem:
Where does the paper, and in comparison, the rest world, stand on news accountability, quality, objectivity, and transparency? The movie touches upon the difference between Journalism and activism, in the Wikileaks context.

2. The Survival of Publishing as a Well Oiled "Machine", and Its Metamorphosis :
The documentary covers Der Spiegel, Guardian and NYT partnering with WikiLeaks, and alludes to the shifting sands of the publishing ecosystem where a publisher could be a source.

3. Funding to Sustain a News Enterprise:
It touches upon the launch of the metered paywall at NYT (in line with the FT, and the Economist).

Finally...  The Opinion

As for the documentary experience, it stays true to the fly on the wall theme. Its like what reading Twitter is to reading the NYT. However, it does a great job of juxtaposing current changes in the industry impact the market leader, against its storied past.

If you are looking for more detail on the trends, you would be better served by visiting the Economist website (or reading this week's print edition) here:
http://www.economist.com/node/18904136. More on that to follow.

At worst, you may end up feeling like you watched some reality TV about a desk at the NYT, and even then, you will find a memorable line or two. "A textured life", for one.

What do you think? If you saw the movie, what did you think?

Netflix and Organizational Capabilities

Executive Summary: While I previously shared a thought exercise (link) on the kind of capabilities Netflix can demonstrate against its competition, this post is about the hard work that goes into creating an organization where teams work in concert, and in diverse ways, to develop these competitive capabilities. From the Desk-of-George-Lucas-Theory-When-In-Doubt-Make-Star-Wars-Prequels.

Why am I talking about Netflix?

Three reasons.

1. Innovation:
Netflix has been called an innovator that leverages its investments into innovation effectively towards business capabilities.

2. Market Capabilities:
Recently, there was news about Netflix looking at original programming, that kicked off this thought exercise on innovation and tactics below:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-netflix.html

3. Distinct Context:
Unlike the iPhone, Netflix has entered existing markets and upended them without much "confetti about cool". It's almost like a B2B company in a B2C market.

What does Netflix mean for Other Organizations?

Netflix continued to invest in streaming capability for many years, before launching the product. This demonstrates a long term thinking about its business and its markets.

How does an organization connect
a. investing in long term capabilities, and,
b. thinking about markets,
In hindsight, all of this is as easy as pie. Lets look at the challenges.

Challenges with Making the Organizational Connections:

Let's take two cases within two functions in an organization.

1. Finance:
Say you are a business finance manager, and a business manager comes over to you about a prototype he would like to acquire and integrate into the company's product and marketing portfolio. How do you not only help him acquire the prototype, but also give him the leeway to invest time and resources toward patiently integrating an early stage startup product into a reliable portfolio asset at the company?

2. Marketing:
As a marketing manager, say, you realize you need an organization wide communication and analytics sharing capability to meet the product and competitive environment in the medium term. What kind of marketing programs, and in what prioritized order, do you push, to deliver phased, sustained capabilities to your organization over the medium term?

Suddenly, this doesn't look all that easy, does it?

For managers battling to get things done within their silos on a daily basis, these are not easy questions to answer. Thinking about this gives you the scale of the effort that an organization needs to put into developing capabilities that impact its markets.

What do you think?

Innovation and Tactics Series: Netflix Bids for Original Programming.

Executive Summary: Netflix has been lauded for its ability to manage innovation, especially for its ability to translate innovation into real impact on its business. This post helps us think through some of the market possibilities it can target. From the Desk of "Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Its a... Jedi mind trick!"

The News, The Question

Netflix seems to be making interesting moves in content production:
1. http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/03/netflix-plays-the-long-game/72611/
2. http://blogs.forbes.com/chunkamui/2011/03/17/how-netflix-innovates-and-wins/

The news reminded me of a curveball I recently threw to some very bright folks:
Will Netflix get into running movie theaters (or atleast renting them out temporarily)?

What Does The Question Mean?

The folks found the question interesting enough to pause to think it through. This is not because they did not have a (what may seem like an obvious) ready answer, but because it should, and apparently did, make you think about Netflix's context and how it is disrupting the context around it.
To rephrase:
1. Can Neflix groupon its at-home viewers into a high quality, custom generated "in theater" experience?
2. Can Netflix be vertically integrated in a niche market, while still serving what is currently its core market?

All in all, how do these ideas impact its profitability and its margins? At worst, can a capability to pursue the option posed in the question be a useful negotiation tool?

To dig a little bit deeper:
- What about Netflix's current position and capabilities (e.g. continued investment in innovation) provides it a competitive advantage?
- As Netflix get to know more of its customers better, how can it leverage it's information better?

Structure Around the Question

Here are a couple of paths to making sense of this question on Netflix:
- Content Development and Production -> Content Channels and Distribution -> Content Consumption
Or the reverse:
- Content Consumers and Markets -> Content Channels and Distribution -> Content Development and Production

Deep Dive Into The Market and The Consumer

Lets walk through the first way of looking through this process:
A. Who is Neflix's core consumer? What market is Netflix targeting?

1. Viewers of TV and movie dvd like content "experience" at home with access to a mailbox and to an internet ready device?
2. Viewers of video content "experience" at home with access to an internet ready device?
3. Viewers of an entertainment "experience" anywhere with access to an internet ready device?
4. Viewers of an entertainment "experience" with access to an internet ready device or with access to a specific location?

Now, you can define a spectrum of "experience" as well, from a streaming video "experience" on a small device while on the move, to a fixed location video "experience" of the IMAX or the "IFC Theater"/ "Indie Movies" sort. As for margins, isn't the IMAX share price hear its LTM high?

Now that you have some lightbulbs flashing in your mind, need I say more?


What do you think?
 

Ad Spend Trends in the US

Executive Summary: A quick check with *you* on your thoughts on media and ad spending in the US. The objective is two fold- identify what you believe are the factors driving the trends, and then seek your forecast for this trend.

Trend: Advertising Dollars

I attended a conference where a respected businessperson emphasized a trend in the media industry. Ad spend in online channels was not growing the overall pie in terms of dollars. Instead the online channels were cannibalizing other channels. So the question arises- is there a disssonance between the change in the size of the pie, its slices, and consumer/ end user relevance?

Older, publicly available statistics are available here:
1. Fred Wilson:
http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2010/06/ad-spend-trends.html
2. Hal Varian:
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/05/a-google-eye-view-of-the-newspaper-business/56360/1/

Some Macroeconomic Factors

1. Are economic conditions factors in terms of the overall ad spend pie? How?
2. Are demographic trends factors in the stagnation of the overall ad spend pie? If so, how do these trends play out in terms of the slices of the pie?

Marketing Teams as Factors in Ad Spend Shifts

I also noted some opinions a few years ago that the move of marketing dollars from traditional media to online media would be slow because of deep, embedded marketing and agency relationships, as well as marketer mind share.

Consumer/ End User Behavior

1. Has the user's behavior across the various marketing communication touch points, even with the addition of online media touch points, changed?
2. Has the user's reaction to these marketing communication touch points changed over time?

What do you think?

White iPhone 4, Hamann Mercedes and Nike AF1 shoes.

Executive Summary: The White iPhone 4 has been a no show. Is this an opportunity that Apple can exploit? A la the Hamann Mercedes or the Limited Edition Nike DJ Clark Kent AF1 shoes? Does that fit into Apple's portfolio of marketing tactics? For some structure to these tactics, see:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2011/03/innovation-and-tactics-series-ipad2-and.html

From the Desk of Aerosmith-said-Lateral-Thinking-is-Hard-On-the-Knees.

Carrying and using the "no show" Apple White iPhone 4 has apparently become a status symbol in silicon valley:
1. Why Apple can make a white iPad but not a white iPhone:
http://edition.cnn.com/2011/TECH/gaming.gadgets/03/03/apple.white.ipad/
 
Now, there are enough "shops" around the world happy to rip apart an Apple product, and some can even put them back together. In fact, you could even classify them as a subculture. However, can Apple use these custom built white iPhone 4s a as marketing tactic?
 
1.  Geneva 2011: Hamann Hawk
http://www.autoevolution.com/news/geneva-2011-hamann-hawk-live-photos-32206.html
 
2. Nike's Limited Edition DJ Clark Kent AF1 Shoes:
http://www.nike.com/nikeos/p/sportswear/en_US/media_details?video=3&videotype=video&guid=31aa9ccc-445b-ce59-7435-55c77c81215d_id1253&
 
How many companies you know would draw laughs, instead of being excoriated, for not launching a promised product or extension? :-)
 
What do you think?
 

Innovation and Tactics Series: iPad2 and iPhone Nano?

Executive Summary: Sometimes, the simplest things can be lost in the daily tactical maze. There have been a slew of statistics demonstrating that Android phones have been eating Apple's lunch over growth in marketshare. If you were Apple, how would you react to these market developments? With its product pipeline and brand dexterity, does Apple really care? From the Desk of Beatles-Were-Wise-With-Live-And-Let-Die.

... More: Think a simple 2x2 matrix covering- market penetration via existing and new products, adjacent market development via new and existing products, and entirely new markets via new products.

The Statistic

Google’s Android becomes the world’s leading smart phone platform:
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2011/r2011013.html

So, there have been rumors swirling about the iPhone nano:
1. Rumors of an iPhone Nano Continue: Smaller, Cheaper, No Memory?
http://onespot.wsj.com/technology/2011/02/14/351ce/rumors-of-an-iphone-nano-continue-smalle

2. Opportunities & Challenges Galore for Apple with 'iPhone Nano':
http://blogs.strategyanalytics.com/WDS/post/2011/02/16/Opportunities-Challenges-Galore-for-Apple-with-iPhone-Nano.aspx

Could they be true? What should AAPL be doing?

The Structure Around The Idea

Here are some steps to aid the thinking process:
1. Current Product for an Existing Marketing- iPhones:
Apple smartly squeezed all it could through its relationship with ATT. Now, to seek increased market penetration, it partnered with Verizon. iPhones are still positioned as products that are a "cut above the rest", and continue to generate great margins for Apple.

The feature pipeline for the current iPhone product line is strong and Apple can expect to continue to dominate the market.

2. New Product for a New Market- iPads:
Apple at the netbook's lunch. No other product is near the customer's utility curve (read conjoint analysis). With the iPad2, Apple widens the gap with competitor products, and safeguards its margins. However, would we say that the Android's smartphone market is a "new" market for Apple? Perhaps it needs a "new" product for this "new" market?

3.  New Products for Existing Markets: 
Really? See point 1. Even better, Apple's strong brand and positioning with its existing product line is so much "gold" that it can practically launch what were traditionally new products under the guise of extensions of existing products.

4. Existing Products for New Markets:
Make no mistake, the iPhone nano is a *new* product in the product development sense. However, in terms of messaging, the iPhone nano is brilliant in leveraging the consumer connection and premium positioning with the "nano" and pit it against "fancy-scmancy" andriod phones.

The Bottom Line

Now, the questions that remain:
1. Internal Assessment: Do Apple's current financial position vis a vis its margins, and its future product margins trends, demand the iPhone nano launch?
2. Competitive Assessment: What does the iPhone Nano launch do its competitors? You can't expect them to shrivel up and disappear. :-)

Stay tooned.
What do you think?

Smartphones, Hypercompetition and Integrated Marketing Communication

Executive Summary: You are a second ranked player in a hypercompetitive market. You learn, from an independent research house, that your customers are more likely to buy your products than your competitors customers are likely to repurchase theirs. What do you do? Do you utilize this in your marketing communication? From the Desk of A-Kick-in-the-Shins-Does-Not-Always-Save-Nine. :-)

The Statistics

While looking at statistics toward structuring a perspective on industry trends, I came across an interesting study on customer loyalty for smartphones, where, even though the iPhone outperformed Android phones in NPS (Net Promoter Score- a Bain methodology) metrics, (marginally) more Android users are likely to buy a similar device, compared to the number of iPhone users' likely to repurchase an iPhone.

 

Waiddaminute? Did you read that right?

 

The Communication Opportunity

 

Given the hypercompetitive smartphone market, you would think the Android marketer has hit the jackpot. You can imagine Google Android folks rushing to their agency with a new brief to launch the next multichannel campaign (broadcast, web, etc.) in no time.

 

You can even imagine a few briefs ("Android users keep coming back for more") and a few advertisements:
1. Android user sees a store sign, "New Android Phone" and buys one, while iPhone users are shown getting their grip right for the iPhone, or,
2. Android user gets another Android phone as a birthday or a Valentine's Day gift, "I always wanted another Android", or,
3. Voice over wraps up with "Even when independent researchers praise the iPhone, they can't help but admit that more Android users are likely to buy another Android phone, than there are iPhone users willing to buy another iPhone."

... and many more!

Some Structure and Strategic Thought

 

The standard approach may be pretty simple in the abstract: Corporate Strategy -> Market Strategy -> Communications Strategy -> Portfolio of Communications Tactics. However, things aren't as straightforward in the "real world", are they?

If you were an Android marketer who finds this statistic, you would consider a few things, not necessarily in a top down, structured manner:

 

1. Source and quality of information:
Is the source and quality of information firmly in your corner? Well, you'll take a firmly independent corner too, wouldn't you? It’s more than just checking if your competitor can throw a more effective/ damaging response with the same source of information.

 

2. Timeframe: Does this lead to a "multi-period game" over advertising where you do not win, or you have no first mover advantage, or both parties end up in an expensive stalemate with a negative outcome for you? Coke vs. Pepsi advertising is an example. Also, think about Pepsi stepping back from Superbowl advertising in 2010.

 

3. Communication Themes: What is Android's driving theme for the season or for the year? What is Android's multi-year communication and branding strategy? Does this drop in the ocean create ripples that turn in tsunamis, or should this drop be assimilated quietly using different tactics?

 

4. Portfolio of Tactics: Does the Android team have a portfolio of tactics aligned with its communication and branding strategy? Does the portfolio explicitly accept or reject this opportunity?

Digging into the Details
Let’s dig into a couple of the items listed above.

Timeframe:

Lets take one question- Do you think there are season spanning advantages to pushing the message? Here are some hypothetical situations that elaborate upon this. Say, it's the holiday season, and Android launches the campaign based on this research. Does Android have time to make an impact on sales? Does Apple have time to respond right away and nullify the advantage? Can Apple hit back harder around the same theme at the next key sales period?

The Source and Quality of Information:

The study, using the Net Promoter Score methodology, declares that the iPhone outperforms others in user loyalty:

http://www.zokem.com/2011/01/in-the-us-market-iphone-outperforms-other-mobile-platforms-in-user-loyalty-by-a-wide-margin-android-is-second-blackberry-fourth/

Given the number of iPhone users that have stuck through a lot of thin (network, antenna, cracked case, etc.) this should not be surprising. However, as you scroll past the Net Promoter Score based results of Mobile Platform Loyalty Ranking graph, and down to Repurchase Behavior graph, you would note an interesting result.

89% of Google Android customers would buy a similar device in the future. Compare this to 85% of iPhone customers being willing to by an iPhone in the future.

Huh?

Now, there are various perspectives to this:

1. The iPhone has set very high expectations and is doing a fantastic job keeping its user engaged.
2. Android targets a different customer segment than the iPhone and phone’s pricing could be a factor. (Perhaps not for long-http://www.pcworld.com/article/219712/cheaper_iphones_why_apple_might_risk_its_brand_identity.html)
3. Also, iPhone’s AT&T exclusivity (for this study period) could be a factor in Android's stats.

We can come up with a few more as we think through this. However, what do you think?

Innovation and Tactics Series: Groupon Wants My Married Friend to Speed Date.

Executive Summary: A light hearted look at the marketing tactics arising out of Groupon. No, I don't mean Groupon...zi. From the Mark Twain Desk of Funny Bones at the Jeffersonian.

Groupon wants my married friend to speed date! Really! Well, technically speaking, my married friend received a groupon for speed dating. I am sure you can see the humor in that. :-)

The smart folks would jump to thinking of this as a marketing, even statistical, error. However, this could well be the Jedi mind trick of the year so far- after the cool VW darth vader superbowl ad.

How? Here are some ideas...
1. Don't your married friends keep setting you up with dates? Duh, right? You would think their persistence factor would beat any email spam marketing tool known to man, or woman.

2. Do you know what the divorce rate in the country is? This could well be a long term, relationship building strategy for a future target audience. Disclaimer: A bright, married friend suggested this when I put this up on Facebook, so don't shoot the messenger.

3. Its an error- my friend would be one of the few, or many, random, in error recipients of the sophisticated, targeted statistical model used for the promotion.

I am pretty sure you have some ideas of your own. What do you think?

Innovation and Tactics Series: Putting Cool to Use- the iPhone at work.

This is an old link and an old post, and I have it here because its an apt start to a theme I would like to pursue.

The iPhone is cool. The iPad is cool. All that cool- what does it do for you? :-)

Here's an example of putting cool to use:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAllFWSl998

Resonates more than Angry Birds? I bet Angry Birds wins too when more of stuff like this happens. How has technology made your life better?

Next stop: iPhones and iPads for the working life?

What do you think?

Apple iPad : A Profile of a Technology Influencer / Opinion Leader / Early Adopter.

There are studies about shopping behaviour and there are studies. Then, there are Confessions of a Technology Shopaholic.

As a self-confessed gadget freak, I can see that the link below- a Technology Influencer / Opinion Leader / Early Adopter spilling the beans on a purchase- falls in the latter category:
http://shopping.yahoo.com/articles/yshoppingarticles/358/how-my-499-ipad-purchase-became-a-1170-credit-card-bill/

If you can't wait to hit the Apple store to see a decade long buzz on convergence and ubiquitous computing take a step closer to reality thanks to great productization and marketing, join the line. :-)

What do you think?
 
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Cloud Computing and Innovation in Sourcing Strategies?

Executive Summay: A speculative look at innovation in sourcing strategies driven by Cloud Computing, based on pricing complexity and on third party players and standards helping develop seamless integration across vendors.

Would the adoption of cloud computing across industries lead to innovation in sourcing strategies? Would it lead to innovation in how the sourcing strategies are implemented?

Tried and tested single, dual or multiple vendor approaches exist, along with bidding mechanisms. If we are to speculate on potential for innovation, below are some possibilities. These are driven by the increasing complexity seen in the pricing of sourcing contracts- the elements of which sometimes resemble derivatives transactions.

1. Does the future hold structured arrangments where cloud computing locations (think: risk management/ disaster recovery/ pricing & capacity management) are transparently bundled into dynamic pricing of services? E.g. Dynamic energy trades/ demand management in the enery sector?

2. Does the future hold structured arrangements where multiple vendors could transparently bundle their services in a dynamic pricing model? E.g. Advertisers bidding on Google search response positions.

As you can see, this speculation rests not only on pricing going "derivative", but also on the emergence of a "glue" that holds all this complexity together and packages it for translation into everyday use.

Getting an answer to this can be broken down into the following steps:
1. Current state of the art in, and future trends in the industry:
- Are the players specializing? How?
- Which tiers of the computing infrastructure are being moved to the cloud and how?
- How are different sectors engaging with cloud computing and its vendors? E.g. Data privacy concerns in healthcare and financial services. We have covered some thoughts that impact this here:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2009/08/privacy-and-social-media.html

The current state analysis process may be similar to the one we previewed for the consumer electronics industry here:
http://randomjunkyramblings.blogspot.com/2010/01/consumer-electronics-show-ces-2010-ce.html

2. Alliances:
- Is there a potential for alliances between players in the sector? Or would any partnership within the sector be a step toward mergers and acquistions?
- Is there a potential for vertical alliances? E.g. Cloud computing providers and Google Analytics?

3. Development of Third Party Standards for Cloud Computing:
- These would range from metrics to methodologies across quality of services, monitoring and executive reporting.


What do you think?


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Stock Repurchase Trends and Forecasts

Executive Summary: Companies as diverse as Pepsi and Intuit have stock buy back programs. Below is an effort to structure an analysis of this corporate finance mechanism, and provide a filter for someone frequently coming across news on this mechanism.

Are there explicit stock repurchase trends in the equities markets?

Can these trends be categorized by sector, geography, excutive compensation structure, company capital structure, dividend policy, need to maintain EPS and EPS guidance, competitive nature of the industry, ranking in the industry, maturity of the player or the industry, or specific macro-economic forces (say a recession) at play?

Or, are these trends and forecasts driven by the specific circumstances of a particular company, and that there is a "natural" limit to a successful, organic reinvestment of cash flows back into the company's operations? If there exists such a "natural" limit, would the company's hurdle rate be the single most important factor in decision making?


What do you think?

Parallels to Regulating the Financial Sector

Executive Summary: The financial services industry and regulators are in rare agreement over the need for some sort of reform. The broad spectrum of views on the issue suggests a need for some fundamental questions that highlight the key decision making elements of the process. Here are some questions that may position you to quick get to the crux of the matter.

A friend* who owns and runs a company in the chemicals industry asked, "If the state is responsible for everything, and pays for everything, why have any liability (on the private players) at all?" As a responsible businessman, he was reacting to a news article that in case of problems, a power plant operator's liability would be capped at 5 to 10% of the total cost of building the plant. The sector? Nuclear power.

The financial services sector and its regulators are apparently in rare agreement that some change must be effected in the sector. The questions I raised in the exchange over the nuclear power sector may be applied to the financial services sector. This is to serve as a parallel to help think through the direction of regulatory reform.

The key to the questions is based on:
1. Market structure
2. Managing liability

Fundamental Questions
Here are some fundamental questions that may help us get a better grip on the discussion.

1. Liability:
- Why do we need the concept of a corporation and the limited liability corporation, for private industry to successfully exist?
- Why do we need the concept of bankruptcy and the potential of a corporation emerging from it?
- Why do countries support the concept of LLCs, and why do more "efficient" (???) economies have "good" bankruptcy laws and implementations?
- Does liability, actual or nominal, ever disappear? Or does it just sit hidden (liability arising out of the risk of a catastrophic event), or rest in plain view (estimated liability after the catastrophic event has occured), till some action is taken?

2. Comparables:
- Does a generator of hydro electric power, who has built a dam, get some sort of liability support?
- If yes, is there a particular reason for either denying or augmenting liability support for the nuclear power sector?

3. The Need for Private Players in the Industry:
- Why do we need private players in the sector? Why can't the government go it alone? Is there a need for more capital, technology, management expertise, or innovation?

4. Regulation:
- How does regulation create the right sort of safeguards and incentives?
- Can the regulation be effectively implemented/ enforced?

More on Liability
An example from the brick and mortar world:

If a building falls a few years after construction (now, we could use the example of crane accidents which have happened in New York), the supplier of building materials/ builder/ building management/ city may get sued/ face civil or criminal action/ etc. Perhaps the high cost of paying out the liability may cause one of the players to go bankrupt. Lets deconstruct this scenario:

1. Was the supplier of building materials working in an environment where faulty components were expected to be weeded out by other players in the value chain, and were not supposed to make the building collapse? In that case, was the liability shared by the "integrated" supplier, construction company and the checks and balances system?
2. Was the liability so huge that, despite it being correctly apportioned to all stakeholders, it remained so large that even after liquidating, the private players involved couldn't make a dent in the liability? In that case, what's the point of apportioning liability?
3. Is it possible to limit the effects of a collapse of a market to within the market? E.g. Does the market have enough players to replace the bankrupt company?
4. Would the collapse of the company cause the market to collapse? Would the collapse of the market be acceptable?
5. Is this a market where "failure" means only two options- all players come together to fix the problem, or someone is prosecuted for negligence, while the rest try to fix the problem?

An Example of a "Negotiated" Allocation of Liability
Lets return to the financial services industry, and look at how Iceland is handling the liabilities arising out of the collapse of its financial services industry:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703391004575106452707894556.html
 
What do you think?

Update: Nikhil shared a wonderful article that showed that folks in the 1950s in the US had thought about these deep philosophical questions while creating an industry in the Nuclear Power sector. It's just fantastic to know that. Now, the same assumptions may not apply in a different context, but it is still fantastic to get an insight into "market engineering".
 
* Thanks Nikhil.

Organization (Re)Alignment and 360 Degree Messaging.

Executive Summary: Tools to tackle the "softer" aspects of organizational (re)alignment- backed by analytics, like the Identity Circle, in a previous post- need to be prioritized when organizational initiatives are planned. Purely as a current example, snippets from the global discussion on Toyota's response to its car performance crisis provide you the starting point to think about, and build, the tools to weigh your options more effectively.


The Crisis
Toyota is facing a massive car performance crisis. It has needed various parts of its ecosystem, which includes car dealers, sales, marketing, PR, operations, finance and suppliers, to move in a concerted manner across various channels to tackle it. The crisis has the potential to impact the industry as a whole. Yes, that's where the term 360 degree messaging comes in. It implies both external and external messaging.


The Conversation
Below is a snippet from the global discussion about Toyota's crisis that shed light on the response to the crisis:
1. Accelerating towards crisis: a PR view of Toyota's recall
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/09/pr-view-toyota-reputation-management

As you would have noted, this article talks about crises that companies like Mattel and Cadburys have tackled previously. Toyota's crisis happens to be a current example in a continuum. The conclusion? A brand/ PR crisis is not an "unthinkable". It may be a Black Swan, but it needs to be explicitly considered.

Organizational (Re)Alignment?
How does the organization and/ or its ecosystem tie into a crisis response? Lets look at some questions that help us evaluate this.

* Are crisis response issues worth minimizing in advance? Do they deserve upfront planning and resources?
* Are crises response issues black swans?
* Is response to a crisis purely an external messaging issue? Is it a leadership issue? Is it an across-the-board organization/ ecosystem issue?
* Would tools that effectively (re)align organizations have helped Toyota or other organizations in crisis?
* Would the results of implementing such tools have helped response?
* Which tools are more effective at providing leadership, or the overall organization, levers to deploy an effective response?
* What tools are available?
* What are the pros and cons of each?
* How effective are each of these tools?



What do you think?



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The Identity Circle: A Talk by Larry Ackerman

Executive Summary: Larry Ackerman gave an amazing talk on the Identity Circle recently in NYC. His insights and measured responses to queries led to an enlightening evening for the audience, and a fleshing out of the concept and implementation of The Identity Circle. A perspective would be to look at molding/ creating an organization's identity as a tool in a spectrum of initiatives toward organizational (re)alignment.

The Talk
Larry's talk was an interesting insight into the challenges of identifying and molding an organization's identity. The website below provides a great overview:
http://www.theidentitycircle.com/

It was refreshing to see the presenter acknowledge sources that have provided a foundation for his work- Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs was one of four.

Apple was a case in point of an organization that has transitioned through various markets and technologies while maintaining a core identity. Maytag is another example where his work yielded results.

Larry's experience with a multiyear engagement at a large, complex, multi-market organization shed light on the effort that goes into moving toward an identity for an organization. The challenges are greater for acquisitive organizations.

Plan for Organizational (Re?)Alignment
Larry explicitly tied in the Identity Circle with organizational alignment initiatives. However, how would you rank order this (re?)alignment initiative when an organization picks its top 3 initiatives for a period?

A Perspective on Organization Realignment
The concept can be looked upon as a part of a spectrum of initiatives organizations may use to realign themselves, where Identity Circle occupies the "softer" range of the spectrum, which is usually occupied by the communication/ messaging tools. Specific cost cutting and process and revenue improvement initiatives occupy the "harder" range of the spectrum. This tool provides leadership the levers for a faster turnaround toward results from hard initiatives.

Note: Larry pointed out in his talk that Identity Circle is backed by hard, analytical tools- its categorized under "soft" tools here as it's "direct" results focus on perception and attitudes. Looking at the steps in the process, you might agree that they are nothing but "hard". :-)

Now, the key challenge remains- given the need for all organizations, public and private, to turn around quick financial results, what would trigger an organization to target a complex and potentially long term initiative in its top 3 items on the "to do" list?

Some More Questions
Larry's thoughts on some of the questions I discussed with him.

1. Identity Beyond The Organization:
* Given that quite often, a nation may be attributed with an identity. Does the Identity Circle applies only to organizations?
- Yes. However, an organization with an identity may span diverse and complex entities.
* Does an industry like the diamond industry -from DeBeers with "Diamonds are Forever" in the 1930s to players like Zales today with DeBeers still a large player- shares an identity?
- No, the players share an image- the identity circle is still tied to the organization.

2. Identity and the Market:
* Do hypercompetitive markets, like Christiansen's Disk storage industry case, "own" the identity (or a large percentage of the identity) of an organization?
- No. The market plays a role in the identity of the organization, but the organization firmly owns its identity, even in extremely hypercompetitive markets that see frequent churn in participating players. Apple was a case in point.

3. Google and China:
* How does Google reconcile the hacker attack problems with China, its core theme of "Don't be Evil", and its initial intent of being an active player in China, despite known challenges going in?
- Google's tactical decision-making may vary to reconcile various objectives; however, longer term, its moves will be in line with its identity.


What do you think?


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Entrepreneur's Corner: Baked by Melissa, Bite-Size Treats!

Executive Summary: We look at an entrepreneurial venture, Baked by Melissa, and some things that stand out with this cupcake shop- product size, pricing and a range of product flavors.

The Overview
Walking about in Manhattan, two signs of green shoots caught my attention. Here is "Baked by Melissa".

The "Baked by Melissa" store's hole in the wall look belies all the work that seems to have gone on behind it- they already seem to have a following, and also run a catering operation. I discovered in when I saw a long line in SOHO, almost as long as the ones formed by fans outside the Abercrombie store on 5th Ave., leading up to a little window.

The cupcakes are bitesized, for a dollar each, and you pick a minimum of 3 from the shop. I was only too glad to sample 3 different flavors at one go. I can see cupcake fans going in for volume when they visit the store.

How Do You Find It?
http://www.bakedbymelissa.com/

Green Shoots?
Melissa Bushell started this venture after moving on from her last job. Talk about green shoots! Here's a candid (third party) interview:
http://cupcakestakethecake.blogspot.com/2009/04/cupcake-interview-melissa-bushell-of.html

It's a great insight into "Animal Spirits".

The Deal- The Marketing Strategy
Why would I talk about this startup?
Note: These perspectives are all mine and have not been discussed with Baked by Melissa.
* The Product: Interesting mix of standard and innovative cupcakes. Did I say that I see cupcake fans buying cupcakes in "box sizes"? I can also see a bite-size cupcake going up against mini/ regular/ large cupcakes with a message- "lose the calories, but not the taste".
* Product Size and Pricing: Did I mention that the cupcakes are bite-sized, for a dollar each, and you pick a minimum of 3 from the shop? This strategy confers great flexibility on the margins.
* Positioning- While the messaging theme (see website) is simple and correctly centered around taste, it could also subtly play into a health and fitness savvy dessert-fiend profile.
* Merchandising- none noted at the store. A simple, "back to the basics of taste" operation.

Ahem... Constructive Criticism?
None. The idea here is to understand "green shoots" and "animal spirits". The entrepreneurs ostensibly have the right counsel to survive growth pangs.


What do you think? Ready, Steady, Cupcake?

 
 
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